Bahrain, the base for the US 5th Fleet in the Middle East has had more protests today, with a Saudi soldier shot and killed by a protestor. In The Agent’s opinion, it will be a long hot summer. I expect either Iran or Saudi to have some social and political unrest at some point. How they deal with it will impact us all…
Fukushima Nuclear Situation – Keep your perspective
Well worth a read, gives a good idea of how this situation is likely to play out. Executive summary? No good outcomes. Area specialises in agriculture, fishing and power generation. However, over to the expert;
The chain reaction has stopped. That happened in two seconds. But the radioactive isotopes are still decaying away. They’ll decay for at least a year. So you have to release the pressure from that containment pretty much every day. With releasing the pressure will come releasing radioactive isotopes as well.
So yes, the Times is right that every plant — there are now three or four of them — will be opening up valves every day to make sure the pressure is down. And there will be releases from these plants for at least a year.
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Second Act of Obama’s Presidency will Determine if he Gets a Third
In recent weeks Obama has been doing his utmost to turn the page on the first act of his presidency by declaring ‘combat operations’ in Iraq over, and using the bully puplit of a newly rennovated Oval Office address to do so.
We are seeing how the US election cycle drives policy decisions in far away places, with real world consequences for those unfortunate enough to be on at the sharp end of any given situation. Declaring ‘combat operations’ in Iraq over (For US troops), allows Obama to claim a key pre-election pledge has been achieved. The real world had something to say on the topic; US troops have since been killed by an Iraqi army regular, US troops have had to directly assist Iraqi troops in combat. It’s not quite his Mission Accomplished moment, but it shows that all presidents are hostage to events rather than their own best laid plans.
Obama now has ‘ending’ the Iraq war, health care ‘reform’ and financial ‘reform’ as his talking points for the next 2 years. (“Reform to whose benefit?” will be an interesting question – I wager the health insurance companies and banks will be those counting their blessings.) It’s worth bearing in mind that the upcoming midterm elections are just the half time show. The real thing will be the campaign around the 2012 presidential elections, about to begin in earnest, once the midterms are finished. The importance of Obama getting his talking points set will become more apparent after the mid-terms as it seems Republicans are set to win enough seats to make passing new laws almost impossible in the coming two years. This will fit with the GOP strategy of denying Obama anything that can be used as a legislative victory.
To get a 2nd term, his third act, Obama will need to link the current economic slump to Republican administrations and decisions past; not easy in a media environment where the truth and facts are not one and the same.
Coordinated Bombings in Iraq foretells Afghanistan’s Fate
The coordinated bombings across Iraq this week are the logical result of the drawing down of foreign combat forces in that country. Afghanistan is operating on a different time line, but the end result will be the same.
In this writers opinion many of the policy decisions leading to the long term occupation of Afghanistan have been driven by a desire to corner Iran strategically, and to secure the Turkmenistan and Pakistan borders ensuring that proposed natural gas pipelines from the Caspian sea pass through countries sympathetic to the United States and friends. At some point in the future, foreign governments will make policy decisions based on the fact that the costs in materiel, manpower and treasure will begin to outweigh these future unrealised benefits.
When this moment comes, and combat troops are drawn down in Afghanistan, Obama, or his successor will declare ‘Mission Accomplished’. Just as in Iraq, this will be the starters pistol for any Afghan anti-government forces to begin a wave of bombings across the country.
As in Iraq, events will show as false the premise that combat operations will be determined by the ‘facts on the ground’ and that they would only finish when Iraqi/Afghan forces were equipped and capable of maintaining security on their own. Afghanistan can look forward to the same scenario playing out when it is decided in far away places that the training wheels need to come off…
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