In recent weeks Obama has been doing his utmost to turn the page on the first act of his presidency by declaring ‘combat operations’ in Iraq over, and using the bully puplit of a newly rennovated Oval Office address to do so.
We are seeing how the US election cycle drives policy decisions in far away places, with real world consequences for those unfortunate enough to be on at the sharp end of any given situation. Declaring ‘combat operations’ in Iraq over (For US troops), allows Obama to claim a key pre-election pledge has been achieved. The real world had something to say on the topic; US troops have since been killed by an Iraqi army regular, US troops have had to directly assist Iraqi troops in combat. It’s not quite his Mission Accomplished moment, but it shows that all presidents are hostage to events rather than their own best laid plans.
Obama now has ‘ending’ the Iraq war, health care ‘reform’ and financial ‘reform’ as his talking points for the next 2 years. (“Reform to whose benefit?” will be an interesting question – I wager the health insurance companies and banks will be those counting their blessings.) It’s worth bearing in mind that the upcoming midterm elections are just the half time show. The real thing will be the campaign around the 2012 presidential elections, about to begin in earnest, once the midterms are finished. The importance of Obama getting his talking points set will become more apparent after the mid-terms as it seems Republicans are set to win enough seats to make passing new laws almost impossible in the coming two years. This will fit with the GOP strategy of denying Obama anything that can be used as a legislative victory.
To get a 2nd term, his third act, Obama will need to link the current economic slump to Republican administrations and decisions past; not easy in a media environment where the truth and facts are not one and the same.
