The coordinated bombings across Iraq this week are the logical result of the drawing down of foreign combat forces in that country. Afghanistan is operating on a different time line, but the end result will be the same.
In this writers opinion many of the policy decisions leading to the long term occupation of Afghanistan have been driven by a desire to corner Iran strategically, and to secure the Turkmenistan and Pakistan borders ensuring that proposed natural gas pipelines from the Caspian sea pass through countries sympathetic to the United States and friends. At some point in the future, foreign governments will make policy decisions based on the fact that the costs in materiel, manpower and treasure will begin to outweigh these future unrealised benefits.
When this moment comes, and combat troops are drawn down in Afghanistan, Obama, or his successor will declare ‘Mission Accomplished’. Just as in Iraq, this will be the starters pistol for any Afghan anti-government forces to begin a wave of bombings across the country.
As in Iraq, events will show as false the premise that combat operations will be determined by the ‘facts on the ground’ and that they would only finish when Iraqi/Afghan forces were equipped and capable of maintaining security on their own. Afghanistan can look forward to the same scenario playing out when it is decided in far away places that the training wheels need to come off…
